Canada is poised to welcome far fewer permanent residents (PRs) in 2025 than originally projected, according to new immigration estimates. A combination of reduced federal targets, lower provincial allocations, and fewer invitations through major immigration pathways has slowed the country’s intake significantly.
Also Read Canada Might Miss the 2025 PR Admissions Target
PR Admissions Lagging Behind 2025 Goals
Between January and August 2025, Canadian immigration authorities granted permanent resident status to 276,870 people, well below the pace needed to meet this year’s plan.
To hit the government’s target of 395,000 PRs, more than 118,000 newcomers would need to be admitted in the remaining four months. Current modelling suggests that this is highly unlikely.
Using admissions patterns from recent years, analysts project Canada will end 2025 with approximately 351,938 new permanent residents, falling short by more than 43,000 admissions, or roughly 11%.
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How the Projection Was Calculated
Data from 2023 and 2024 show that about 78% of annual admissions occur in the first three quarters. Applying this trend to 2025 reveals a significant slowdown:
| Year | % of Target Achieved by Q3 |
| 2023 | 79.87% |
| 2024 | 78.39% |
| 2025 | 70.09% |
This means that, compared with previous years, Canada has achieved a much smaller share of its planned intake by the end of Q3, signaling a notable cooling in immigration levels.
A Shift in Government Strategy
The decline is not due to administrative delays alone; it reflects deliberate policy adjustments.
Ottawa has stated its intention to bring annual PR admissions to below 1% of Canada’s population by 2027, marking a significant shift from previous years of rapid immigration growth.
Several federal and provincial policy changes introduced in 2024 and 2025 are contributing to the reduced number of newcomers:
Key Factors Behind the Decline
1. Lower Federal PR Targets
For 2025, the government set a PR admissions target of 395,000, a sharp reduction from the 485,000 target in 2024. This alone accounts for a planned 90,000-person drop.
2. Major Cuts to PNP Allocations
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) admissions saw one of the largest reductions.
The federal allocation for PNP admissions in 2025 was halved, from 110,000 in 2024 to just 55,000.
As a result:
- Provinces received far fewer nominations.
- Many PNP draws have been reduced or paused entirely.
- Some provinces requested and secured additional spots, but total allocations remain well below last year.
3. Widespread Suspension and Closure of PNP Streams
Provinces have responded to allocation cuts by suspending or discontinuing multiple pathways:
- British Columbia: Closed its International Graduate and International Post-Graduate streams; postponed the launch of three new student-focused streams.
- Saskatchewan: Shut down all entrepreneur and farm immigration pathways.
- Ontario: Ended its Entrepreneur Stream and paused its Express Entry Skilled Trades Stream.
- New Brunswick: Discontinued the NB Student Connection pathway.
Several other PNPs have added occupational restrictions, capped processing for certain sectors, or halted new Expression of Interest (EOI) submissions.
4. Fewer Invitations Through Express Entry
Express Entry has also seen a drop in activity.
- ITAs issued (Jan–Oct 2024): 90,835
- ITAs issued (Jan–Oct 2025): 81,485
That is a decline of 9,350 invitations.
Notably, no category-based STEM draws have taken place in 2025, despite 4,500 STEM invitations being issued in 2024.
5. Tightened Rules for Temporary Residents
Temporary residents (TRs) make up a large share of future PR applicants. However, the government plans to reduce the TR population to under 5% of Canada’s population by 2027, and has already implemented several restrictive measures:
- Tighter eligibility criteria for spousal open work permits.
- A national cap on study permit applications.
- New language and program-specific conditions for PGWP eligibility.
- A pause on certain LMIA low-wage processing in regions with unemployment above 6%.
These changes reduce both the number of temporary residents entering Canada and the number of individuals who will eventually become permanent residents.
What This Means for Canada’s Immigration Outlook
With multiple pathways constricting simultaneously, Canada is facing its sharpest decline in PR admissions in years. The slowdown reflects a new era of moderated immigration levels, one that prioritizes population stabilization and infrastructure capacity over aggressive growth.
Unless there is a significant policy shift or acceleration in processing during the final months of the year, Canada appears set to miss its 2025 immigration target by tens of thousands of newcomers.
